| Why the RNG is not working correctly | |
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Karthunk Moderator
Posts : 249 Join date : 2013-01-17 Age : 46 Location : Louisiana
| Subject: Why the RNG is not working correctly February 18th 2013, 1:43 pm | |
| RNG = random number generator
So let's talk about why the RNG is bogus and needs to be fixed..
If you have five squad mates, each with a 30% chance to use an ability, and each has a chance to use a special it would look like this:
30% 30% 30% 30% 30%
The first question is: what is the chance for them all to use a special on the same round?
The answer is found as such: .3x.3x.3x.3x.3= 0.00243 or 0.2%
The next question is: what is the chance for none of them to use a special in one round?
100% - 0.2% = 99.8%
The last question is: what is the chance none of them will use a special in two rounds?
.998^2 = 99.6%
Anyone out there having at least one of your fams use a special 99.8% of the time? Yeah, I didn't think so | |
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Lanseal Site Creator
Posts : 338 Join date : 2012-12-28
| Subject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly February 18th 2013, 7:00 pm | |
| Your math is horribly wrong.
You're excluding all possibilities except for all or nothing.
The correct calculation for none of them using a special in one round is:
0.7^5=16.8%
In two rounds, it's 0.7^10=2.8% | |
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OKRedleg Admin
Posts : 89 Join date : 2013-01-05
| Subject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly February 19th 2013, 12:28 am | |
| Thankfully for you all, I have consumed all the 2.8% odds. You should be ok. | |
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Karthunk Moderator
Posts : 249 Join date : 2013-01-17 Age : 46 Location : Louisiana
| Subject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly February 19th 2013, 2:44 am | |
| - Lanseal wrote:
- Your math is horribly wrong.
You're excluding all possibilities except for all or nothing.
The correct calculation for none of them using a special in one round is:
0.7^5=16.8%
In two rounds, it's 0.7^10=2.8% Well... considering how my ingrate friend busted out laughing when I just showed him my post, he was the one whom I asked for help figuring this probability question, I'm thinking that I have been punked. With this in mind I bow before your probability-fu and will make my way back down from the mountain. | |
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valorsoul Rare
Posts : 353 Join date : 2013-02-19 Location : San Diego, CA
| Subject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly February 20th 2013, 1:13 am | |
| I took several stats classes and remember nothing (undergrad and grad school). Luckily Lanseal did the math to make me feel better. I've had 3 rounds in a row without proccing before. | |
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legendslayer Admin
Posts : 1371 Join date : 2013-01-05
| Subject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly February 20th 2013, 9:58 am | |
| It's not Statistics that helps you here. It's Combinatorics. One of my more entertaining classes in college! Pigeon-hole Principle anyone? | |
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Mise187 Rare
Posts : 119 Join date : 2013-01-10
| Subject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly February 20th 2013, 10:50 am | |
| All of you are wrong, the chance to proc is based on how lucky you are.
Those % on the familiars are just to trick you, they are just numbers and they means nothing.
Forget everything u learned at school or college, this life is pure shit.
<3 | |
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