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 Why the RNG is not working correctly

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Lanseal
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Karthunk
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PostSubject: Why the RNG is not working correctly   Why the RNG is not working correctly EmptyFebruary 18th 2013, 1:43 pm

RNG = random number generator

So let's talk about why the RNG is bogus and needs to be fixed..

If you have five squad mates, each with a 30% chance to use an ability, and each has a chance to use a special it would look like this:

30% 30% 30% 30% 30%

The first question is: what is the chance for them all to use a special on the same round?

The answer is found as such: .3x.3x.3x.3x.3= 0.00243 or 0.2%

The next question is: what is the chance for none of them to use a special in one round?

100% - 0.2% = 99.8%

The last question is: what is the chance none of them will use a special in two rounds?

.998^2 = 99.6%

Anyone out there having at least one of your fams use a special 99.8% of the time? Yeah, I didn't think so
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Lanseal
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PostSubject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly   Why the RNG is not working correctly EmptyFebruary 18th 2013, 7:00 pm

Your math is horribly wrong.

You're excluding all possibilities except for all or nothing.

The correct calculation for none of them using a special in one round is:

0.7^5=16.8%

In two rounds, it's 0.7^10=2.8%
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OKRedleg
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PostSubject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly   Why the RNG is not working correctly EmptyFebruary 19th 2013, 12:28 am

Thankfully for you all, I have consumed all the 2.8% odds. You should be ok.
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Karthunk
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PostSubject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly   Why the RNG is not working correctly EmptyFebruary 19th 2013, 2:44 am

Lanseal wrote:
Your math is horribly wrong.

You're excluding all possibilities except for all or nothing.

The correct calculation for none of them using a special in one round is:

0.7^5=16.8%

In two rounds, it's 0.7^10=2.8%
Well... considering how my ingrate friend busted out laughing when I just showed him my post, he was the one whom I asked for help figuring this probability question, I'm thinking that I have been punked. With this in mind I bow before your probability-fu and will make my way back down from the mountain.
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valorsoul
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PostSubject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly   Why the RNG is not working correctly EmptyFebruary 20th 2013, 1:13 am

I took several stats classes and remember nothing (undergrad and grad school). Luckily Lanseal did the math to make me feel better. I've had 3 rounds in a row without proccing before.
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legendslayer
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PostSubject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly   Why the RNG is not working correctly EmptyFebruary 20th 2013, 9:58 am

It's not Statistics that helps you here. It's Combinatorics. One of my more entertaining classes in college! Pigeon-hole Principle anyone?
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Mise187
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PostSubject: Re: Why the RNG is not working correctly   Why the RNG is not working correctly EmptyFebruary 20th 2013, 10:50 am

All of you are wrong, the chance to proc is based on how lucky you are.

Those % on the familiars are just to trick you, they are just numbers and they means nothing.

Forget everything u learned at school or college, this life is pure shit.



<3
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